Article By : Takeshi Niwa, Techno Programs Analysis Co. Ltd
Smartphone chipset shipments in 2023 will probably be about 1.06 billion models, about 5% decrease than smartphone shipments, with a YoY drop of 24%.
In response to the semiconductor provide scarcity in 2021, many smartphone OEMs took steps to extend stock in 2022, rising demand for chipsets. Nonetheless, after the second quarter of final yr (2Q 2022), the demand for smartphones decreased sharply. However, chipset provide didn’t cease instantly due to the long-term provide settlement (LTA). In consequence, smartphone chipset stock elevated in each handset OEMs and chip suppliers.
Chipset shipments in 2022 are estimated to be simply over 1.4 billion models, exceeding smartphone shipments by 17%. Smartphone chipset shipments in 2023 will probably be about 1.06 billion models, about 5% decrease than smartphone shipments, with a YoY drop of 24%. Chipset stock changes are anticipated to proceed till the tip of 2023 or early 2024.
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The demand for premium chipset was comparatively secure throughout 2022-2023. Stock elevated considerably in mid/low-tier 5G and LTE chipset. The value of mid/low finish 5G and LTE chipset decreased considerably this yr for stock digestion. The value of low finish 5G chipset was between $25 and $30 in 1H 2022 however it dropped to beneath $20 in 1H 2023.
Smartphone Chipset Market Forecast
The smartphone chipset market measurement is estimated to be $48.2 billion in 2022 and $47 billion in 2023 in income base. The common unit value of chipsets is on the rise as a result of improve in 5G, the growth of premium chipset share, and the rise in semiconductor prices in 2021-2022. The general common promoting value elevated from $31 in 2020 to $42 in 2023. In the long run, revenue-based market measurement is estimated to develop by 7% of CAGR from 2023 to 2029, because of the growth of 5G share and the continual improve in premium chipset ASP. Smartphone market is anticipated to succeed in about $70.5 billion in 2029.
In income base, 5G chipset will account 89% share in 2023, in contrast with 54% in cargo unit base.
The iPhone chipset (modem + software processor) market share by way of income will probably be 46% in 2023, then improve to 49% in 2024-2025. The market share of Android premium chipset will probably be 26% in 2023 and round 23% in 2024-2025. Android premium + Apple iPhone chipset are anticipated to maintain a mixed market share of over 70%.
The common value of Android smartphone chipsets trended upward in 2021-2022, however non-premium chipset turned to a downward development in 2023 when getting into the stock digestion. Non-premium, particularly mid/low finish chipset value will proceed to say no progressively after 2024.
Lengthy-term course of migration development
From mobile normal perspective, 5G chipset presently makes use of 3nm (Apple premium), 4nm (premium & excessive), 5nm (excessive, mid, low finish) and 6/7nm (low finish). LTE chipset primarily makes use of 12/14nm (low finish) and 6nm (mid finish). 6nm LTE chipset is anticipated emigrate to 5G sooner or later.
As 5G grows, 6/7nm or past turns into mainstream. 6/7nm or beneath is anticipated to account for 58% in 2023, 70% in 2025, and 80% in 2029. In 2022-2023, mid-end and low-end 5G SoC begin utilizing 4nm and 5nm course of. 4/5nm will take about 32% in 2023.
For 3nm and beneath, it is going to take longer time to penetrate non-premium chipsets. From a value perspective, it’s estimated that mid-end 5G SoC will undertake 3nm round 2028. Concerning the 2nm course of, mass manufacturing at TSMC and Samsung Foundry is anticipated to start in 2025. Subsequently, 2nm cell processor will probably be launched in 2026.
Amongst premium smartphone processor suppliers, Apple takes benefit with its financial scale in contrast with Android chipset suppliers. Apple and Android chipset suppliers employed the superior course of on the similar time by 4nm. However in 2023, Apple adopts 3nm course of node took 1 yr forward than Android chip suppliers. Apple is anticipated to maintain/widen the management place in premium smartphone chipset market with particular relationship with TSMC in superior logic expertise.
With value will increase related to semiconductor course of shrink, the product lifetime of premium chipsets is turning into longer, and course of migration cycle can also be turning into longer. It’s assumed that the transition from 3nm to 2nm will take three years (2023 > 2026). 3nm will probably be adopted in premium chipsets from round 2023 to 2025, and it’s prone to be adopted within the high-end phase from 2026 onwards. Equally, 2nm is prone to be adopted within the premium phase for the primary three years.
Smartphone Utility Processor Market Share Pattern
Smartphone software processor market share has been consolidated to huge gamers: Qualcomm, MediaTek and Apple, with a mixed market share of 85% in 2023. Others embrace Samsung, UNISOC, HiSilicon, and Google. The whole market share of prime three main firms was round 70% from 2017 to 2019. The oligopoly has progressed after the dropout of HiSilicon.
Qualcomm focuses extra on 5G, high-end and premium segments, and its market share in China is reducing as a result of affect of US-China commerce friction. Qualcommâs market share primarily based on shipments models is on the decline. MediaTek is increasing unit primarily based market share as a substitute. Nonetheless, Qualcomm is sort of two occasions greater than MediaTek primarily based on the chipset income.
HiSilicon was unable to provide the chipset after 2020 as a result of sanctions imposed on Huawei by the US authorities, however it was revived in 2023. However, there are restrict to accessible semiconductor manufacturing for Huawei. Chinese language IC Foundry SMIC will determine the manufacturing capability of HiSilicon 5G chipset, and future roadmap.
Google has been creating the appliance processor with Samsung LSI. However it’s anticipated to maneuver to inhouse chip design and manufacturing at TSMC from 2024. TSMCâs ASIC design subsidiary GUC is anticipated to assist its chip design.
Oppo developed inhouse software processor, however it dissolved Zheku, a semiconductor improvement firm in 2023. Alternatively, Xiaomi invested to cell SoC design subsidiary X-Ring in 2023, to speed up the cell chipset improvement. It goals to launch the premium smartphone processor in 2025.
Smartphone 5G Modem Chipset Market Share
Qualcomm, HiSilicon and Samsung took early lead in smartphone 5G modem market share in 2019. Nonetheless, HiSilicon and Samsung misplaced market share rapidly from 2020 to 2021, MediaTek and Qualcomm gained the share as a substitute.
Qualcomm accounts about 2/3 of market share in 2022-2023. Nonetheless, Qualcommâs market share is anticipated to say no from 2024 as Apple will make use of inhouse 5G modem in 2025, and 5G spreads in rising international locations, lower-tier segments.
Apple is anticipated to start out mass manufacturing of its personal modem chip in 2024. Nonetheless, because of improvement delays, the present outlook is that it is going to be adopted from the 2025 mannequin. Qualcomm is anticipated to take about 20% of share in 2026 iPhone fashions.
MediaTek accounts about 40% market share in smartphone chipset market, however it takes about 25% in 5G smartphone market. It’s anticipated to achieve market share progressively from 2024 as mid/low smartphone shifts to 5G.
UNISOC 5G has been adopted by many shoppers for non-handset purposes, though the monitor document of adoption of 5G modem for smartphones may be very small.
This text and knowledge are primarily based on our market analysis report â2023 Cell Cellphone Platform Market & Improvementâ, printed in September 2023. Please contact us for extra info.
