The principle storage expertise themes in 2023 have been capability will increase in disk and the potential for SSDs changing them. Twin actuator expertise underwhelmed.
We began 2023 with Western Digital delivery 22 TB typical magnetic recording (CMR) disk drives and 26 TB shingled magnetic media recording (SMR) drives with zones of overlapping write racks. These are 3.5-inch nearline drives spinning at 7,200 rpm. Seagate caught up with WD in April, saying its personal 22 TB HDD, the Ironwolf Professional, and Toshiba reached the 22 TB stage in September with the MG10F.
All these 22 TB drives have 10 platters and the enclosures are helium-filled.
Seagate appeared on the cusp of releasing its HAMR (heat-assisted magnetic recording) expertise with a roadmap to 50 TB capability and past. Again in April 2021, Seagate CEO Dave Mosely mentioned the corporate was planning to “start delivery a couple of variations of 20 TB [HAMR] drives within the second half of the calendar yr.” This drive was eclipsed as a result of by September of that yr, Seagate shifted focus to discussing gen 2 HAMR drive expertise with a 30 TB drive in improvement, and common supply within the 2022-2025 interval.
It wasn’t delivered in 2022. Seagate CFO Gianluca Romano revealed coming HAMR drive capability factors in a monetary analysts briefing session in June this yr. The primary HAMR drive shall be 32 TB, with 36 TB subsequent, 40 TB after that, then 50 TB. Luca informed his viewers to count on an 18-20 month hole between the capability factors.
We didn’t see a 32 TB HAMR drive this yr. Seagate introduced a 24 TB CMR drive in October this yr. We perceive that is to be its final CMR drive. New drives after this may use HAMR tech. Western Digital introduced its 24 TB product in November, accompanying it with a 28 TB SMR model.
In a single sense it has been a nasty couple of years during which to introduce new and high-capacity drive tech. The pandemic and following common financial malaise prompted a downturn in disk drive gross sales as the big consumers began utilizing up their stock as a substitute of shopping for new drives. That meant the HDD producers needed to cut back their manufacturing capability, which meant fewer HDD models have been passing by way of their factories, placing up per-drive manufacturing prices. This was a disincentive to introducing even higher-capacity drives, which might have most likely prompted an extra drop in disk drive unit shipments.
Nevertheless, the disk drive market seems to be at first of a restoration.
After foreshadowing it in June, Seagate introduced in November that its Corvault clever JBOD was utilizing two sorts of HAMR drives, with out revealing their capability. We estimated they have been 21 TB and 28 TB drives, however a Seagate spokesperson mentioned that Corvault used “Exos X drives with HAMR expertise ranging as much as 29 TB.”
Neither Toshiba nor Western Digital used microwave-assisted magnetic recording (MAMR) of their 2023 drive merchandise. As an alternative they used an offshoot with elements of MAMR tech used to extend the sign energy of their CMR drives and allow larger capacities. For instance, Toshiba used FC-MAMR (Flux Management MAMR), which includes a microwave flux management phenomenon to enhance write indicators at excessive areal densities.
The general outcomes of the three suppliers’ R&D in 2023 was to broaden nearline drive capability by 2 TB (9-10 p.c). If Seagate does introduce a 32 TB HAMR drive in 2024, that shall be an 8 TB soar, a rise of 33.33 p.c. That can give Western Digital and Toshiba one thing to purpose for.
A major soar in disk drive capability is required as a result of business SSDs at the moment are accessible at 30.72 TB and 61.44 TB capability factors. Pure Storage is utilizing 75 TB flash drive modules in its techniques and has mentioned it can attain a 300 TB capability level in 2026. Seagate’s HAMR guarantees to provide us 50 TB within the 2024/2025 interval and 100 TB by 2030. By itself, that’s not sufficient. Except HDD expertise improvement can proceed giving HDDs a big value/TB benefit over SSDs, what Pure is claiming will occur might be become the case – for markets the place the restricted write endurance of SSDs isn’t an obstacle to their use.
One other disk expertise that ought to be vital however appears to be virtually downplayed by suppliers is dual-actuator expertise, with the potential to double learn entry pace. Western Digital launched dual-actuator drives in January 2023 and Seagate launched its MACH.2 multi-actuator drives in November. This was after Seagate first launched its twin-actuator MACH.2 tech with 14 TB Exos 2X14 drives in 2021. Twin-actuator drives lose a platter because of the house required by the second actuator contained in the drive’s enclosure. This lower in capability could also be extra vital to nearline drive consumers than the rise in drive IO pace, and that could possibly be why the twin actuator bulletins could not have moved the market as a lot as hoped.
