BANOVCE NAD BEBRAVOU, Slovakia, Sept 21 (Reuters) – “We’re a peaceable nation. We is not going to ship a single spherical to Ukraine.”
That was Robert Fico’s blunt message for some 300 supporters at a political rally final week within the western Slovakian city of Banovce nad Bebravou, forward of a Sept. 30 election that the populist former prime minister is favorite to win.
Have been he to observe by way of on his promise, it could symbolize a sea-change for Slovakia, till now a staunch ally of its japanese neighbour Ukraine in its conflict in opposition to Russia. Bratislava has equipped weapons and supplied robust political assist to Kyiv inside the European Union and NATO.
“They should sit down anyway and discover an settlement,” Fico stated of the combatants. “Russia won’t ever depart Crimea, by no means depart the territories that it controls.”
Fico just isn’t assured to win. No occasion is tipped to safe a majority and forging a coalition authorities may show robust. Western diplomats and officers in Kyiv additionally say a small nation like Slovakia can solely go up to now in upending EU and NATO coverage.
However the 59-year-old has raised eyebrows in Brussels and past by criticising sanctions in opposition to Russia, calling for a rapprochement with Moscow when the conflict ends and pledging to veto Ukraine’s membership of NATO if ever that risk arises.
On the marketing campaign path, Fico has stated the conflict “began in 2014 when Ukrainian Nazis and fascists began murdering Russian residents in Donbas and Luhansk”, echoing Moscow’s justification for backing separatists who seized land in japanese Ukraine.
His occasion is narrowly forward in polls in a rustic the place voters are weary of financial ache from COVID restrictions, excessive inflation linked to the Ukraine conflict and a surge in unlawful migrants.
Disinformation on social media has added to polarisation amongst voters and contributed to public scepticism about supporting Ukraine, in accordance with sociologists.
Fico declined to be interviewed for this text and didn’t reply emailed questions.
“We should always not assist them (Ukraine) with weapons as a result of evil solely breeds extra evil,” stated pensioner Eleonora Tanacova, 68, as she listened to Fico’s speech final Thursday. “This conflict won’t ever finish if we hold supporting them.”
WORRIES IN WEST
Fico’s marketing campaign rhetoric has Slovakia’s allies frightened, in accordance with 4 senior Western diplomats.
With Ukraine’s counteroffensive but to create a significant breakthrough – elevating questions over how lengthy allies will maintain their monetary and army assist – EU and NATO leaders are determined to take care of a united entrance in opposition to Moscow.
Fico may additionally ally himself with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, an outlier in Europe who has maintained shut ties to Russia, elevating the prospect of extra clashes with Brussels over the rule of legislation, the conflict in Ukraine and migration.
However Fico’s pragmatism throughout earlier tenures, when he took Slovakia into the euro and largely prevented rows with EU and NATO companions, has tempered such issues.
“Russian troops in your border and a fractured relationship together with your allies, is that you really want?” stated one of many diplomats. “Or does he revert to being the pragmatist he has been?”
A second diplomat believed Fico would hesitate to chop arms provides to Ukraine past these from already depleted military shares, given the financial significance of ammunition makers and a restore base.
And Brussels has leverage. On issues of the rule of legislation, it might withhold EU monetary assist for Slovakia, which badly wants it with the fiscal deficit forecast at 6.85% of GDP this 12 months, the very best within the euro zone.
Ukrainian officers say they’re involved by the prospect of an Orban coalition contained in the EU, however be aware that Hungary doesn’t normally break rank on vital choices and so count on a restricted overseas coverage influence if Fico wins.
Additionally, Fico’s socially conservative SMER-SSD occasion is barely simply forward within the newest polls with 19.4% assist, in opposition to 18.2% for the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) occasion. A lot will depend on how smaller events fare.
FAKE NEWS?
Fico, pressured to resign in 2018 after the homicide of an investigative journalist triggered mass protests, has turned extra radical in opposition.
Disinformation, in the meantime, has unfold, undermining public assist for Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of 2022, stated Katarina Klingova of think-tank Globsec.
Slovakia, she added, has lengthy been fertile floor for pro-Russian narratives, due to its historic affinity, low belief in public establishments and politicians shifting once-fringe narratives into the political mainstream.
“We noticed these narratives have been on the fringe of the knowledge spectrum (in 2015), however now you turn on TV and nearly in each debate you will have some political consultant utilizing disinformation narratives,” Klingova stated.
“They do not essentially must be supportive of the Kremlin … however undoubtedly they play into the fingers of Russia.”
In early 2023, greater than 40,000 Slovaks signed petitions to keep away from being referred to as up in case of mobilisation, after hoax posts on social media stated a call-up to battle in Ukraine could also be on its means.
The hoax was debunked, however the response pointed to the affect that false info surrounding the Ukraine conflict has amongst Slovakia’s 5.5 million inhabitants.
A Globsec survey earlier this 12 months discovered solely 40% of Slovaks thought Russia primarily answerable for invading Ukraine, the bottom rely throughout central and japanese Europe.
Extra reporting by Andrew Grey in Brussels and Thomas Balmforth in Kyiv; Enhancing by Mike Collett-White and Gareth Jones
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