Because the horrible Shabbat of October 7, we now have been inundated with resolute commentary concerning the collapse of the assumptions that had underpinned Israel’s conduct: that Hamas is deterred and that the inherent risk it poses could possibly be “contained.” The widespread speaking level now’s that the “idea” has collapsed. Is that this so?
The Hebrew time period “conceptzia” is charged with Israel’s dire failure to appropriately perceive Egypt’s intention to launch a struggle towards it on Yom Kippur in 1973. In opposition to such a traumatic background, earlier than eulogizing any particular “idea,” one should ask whether or not its purported collapse made method for a brand new coverage. A “idea” – a notion and a set of assumptions from which a coverage derives – is alive so long as decision-makers keep on with the previous coverage. In our present scenario, the precise root “idea,” as I’ll element under, hasn’t collapsed in any respect. It continues to steer authorities coverage.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-term conduct reveals that he assumed that Hamas could possibly be contained and deterred. This assumption served a deeper strategic idea: fostering division among the many Palestinians whereas weakening the Palestinian Authority in order that Israel might assert that it has no accomplice for a peace settlement. Such an settlement is undesirable from the perspective of the Israeli Proper, as a result of it could put an finish to the search for a “Higher Israel.”
Showing earlier than the fee of inquiry, as soon as it convenes, Netanyahu will be anticipated to argue that it was not the “idea” that collapsed, however moderately the way in which it was managed. He’ll contend that the truth that the IDF, the Shin Guess (Israel Safety Company), and Israel’s intelligence equipment failed doesn’t imply that the “idea” is mistaken.
Israeli troopers attend the scene at which, in response to Israeli police, a truck driver hit a number of pedestrians earlier than being neutralised at Maccabim checkpoint within the West Financial institution August 31, 2023. (credit score: REUTERS/AMMAR AWAD)
The occupation creates perpetual battle
INDEED, IF the nationwide soul-searching is diminished to clarifying whether or not the Hamas containment “idea” failed, or whether or not these charged with its administration failed, we could have missed essentially the most profound and elementary reason for the failures we’re reckoning with right now: the “idea” of sustaining the occupation as if we are able to comprise its dangerous implications.
If we chorus from coming to grips with the futility of the technique of sustaining the occupation, we’ll discover that the teachings realized can be restricted to how the previous “idea” was mismanaged, and never the efficacy of abandoning it. And so, the teachings of the catastrophe will solely translate into tactical measures the place the deepening of Israel’s rule within the territories can be one of the crucial outstanding of them. The occupation will develop into extra brutal, and will probably be performed in response to the identical fundamental premise that led us to October 7 – that Israel can proceed its occupation of one other individuals endlessly.
So long as sustaining the occupation guides Israel’s actions, we are able to count on to fulfill more and more violent Palestinian resistance, to not point out the chance of sliding right into a binational actuality that will diminish Israel’s Jewish character. Typically we’ll reach subduing the assaults and typically, sadly, we’ll fail. As extreme because the harm we inflict on Hamas could also be, it won’t get rid of the infrastructure that enabled the expansion of the murderous group.
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We discover ourselves pressured to “mow the garden” repeatedly, realizing full properly that the grass will proceed to develop. The garden might change names with every of Hamas’s successors. However make no mistake, the bloody cycle will repeat itself so long as we’re guided by the “idea” that the occupation will be maintained, and its disastrous ramifications contained.
Hamas’s best risk is a reputable peace course of
TO DEFEAT the infrastructure that incubates Hamas and its ilk, an strategy apart from the failed concept of occupation have to be discovered and superior. A political settlement have to be sought with the Palestinian camp that’s prepared for a historic compromise with Israel, the identical camp whose individuals have been thrown from the rooftops of Gaza by Hamas thugs.
The discourse with this camp have to be sober and freed from illusions concerning the nature of the Palestinian “peace camp.” It would by no means be made up of lovers of Zion, however its individuals perceive that not accepting the fact of the existence of the State of Israel will solely cause them to additional nationwide calamity.
Hamas considers the notion of a peace course of its greatest risk. Because the horizon of Palestinian independence that awaits on the finish of a political course of comes into view, Hamas ideology will develop into much less enticing, and fewer related. The extra the Palestinians take pleasure in financial prosperity, the extra they may conclude that peace pays off.
The demise of Hamas, if it does occur, will create a historic alternative for the restoration of the Palestinian camp that aspires to settle the battle with Israel, restart a peace course of that results in a two-state answer, and that helps sustainable normalization of Israel’s relations with the Arab world.
The street can be lengthy and gradual. It would require the Palestinian facet to fulfill Israel’s strict safety necessities and abide by rigorous efficiency assessments. The method will even require an interim interval through which the Gaza Strip can be transferred in levels from IDF management to a world drive overseen by america. This drive, in shut coordination with Israel, will handle the safety of Gaza and the large job of reconstruction.
Within the distant previous, the political divide in Israel revolved across the occupation and the way forward for the territories, however lately, the opposition events to the Left of the Likud have been reluctant to hoist the banner of a political settlement with the Palestinians. They adopted the failed method of “battle administration” and thereby assisted the adherents of the occupation in increasing the settlement enterprise and thwarting a two-state answer.
The Proper isn’t about to alter its conceptual motherboard; it doesn’t need the occupation to finish as a result of it doesn’t need to relinquish the imaginative and prescient of Higher Israel. However will opposition leaders be jolted from their complacency within the wake of the October 7 bloodbath and current a political initiative for an Israeli-Palestinian settlement? Will they are saying in a transparent voice that essentially the most important strategic idea that has collapsed isn’t the containment of Hamas, however the continuation of the occupation?
The author, a former director-general of the International Ministry, is a senior fellow on the Jewish Individuals Coverage Institute. His novel Toronto Junction was just lately revealed by 2sfarim Publishing.
