NEEDHAM, Mass., November 29, 2023 – Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to see 7.3% year-over-year development within the fourth quarter of 2023 (4Q23), in response to the Worldwide Knowledge Company (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Cell Cellphone Tracker. The improved forecast for the vacation quarter follows the modest enchancment in 3Q23 with out additional stock buildup, which has led some channels and main OEMs to ramp up their enterprise plans for the months forward. The market restoration will proceed in 2024 with 3.8% development anticipated, adopted by low single-digit development for the remainder of the forecast interval, leading to a five-year compound annual development price of 1.4%.
Regardless of improved expectations for 4Q23, worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to say no 3.5% yr over yr in 2023 to 1.16 billion models. The revised forecast for 2023 is an enchancment over the decline of 4.7% forecast earlier within the yr.
“The tide has lastly turned and it feels protected to say the worst is behind us,” stated Nabila Popal, analysis director with IDC’s Mobility and Shopper Gadget Trackers. “Whereas the speed of restoration varies throughout areas, the modified sentiment is most obvious in China, the place shoppers are lastly popping out of their shells and spending on gadgets, fueled by the joy from Huawei’s resurgence, which is in flip anticipated to have a constructive affect on the bigger Android market within the long-term. Extra importantly, as we enter the brand new period of low single-digit development and lengthened refresh cycles, it’s clear the market is maturing. Whereas the full accessible market will stay under pre-pandemic cargo ranges all through the forecast, the brilliant facet is that common promoting costs (ASPs) and market worth will stay notably greater than earlier than.”
Smartphone ASP is predicted to rise 5.5% in 2023 to $438, marking a fourth consecutive yr of development because the premium market continues to develop throughout all areas. Nonetheless, ASP development is predicted to taper off and progressively decline to $396 by 2027, which stays greater than prior forecasts. From an working programs (OS) perspective, iOS stays extra resilient to macro challenges with 0.6% development, reaching a report share of 19.6% this yr, whereas Android is forecast to say no 4.4%. Over the long run, Android will develop barely quicker than iOS, rising its share of the market to 81.3% by the tip of the forecast interval.
“Regardless of one other lackluster yr for smartphones, 5G adoption continues to be a brilliant spot within the general market,” stated Anthony Scarsella, analysis director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Cell Cellphone Tracker. “With 5G gadgets turning into much less related in most developed markets, the expansion of 5G in rising markets will play a vital half within the rebound subsequent yr and all through the forecast interval. World 5G shipments are anticipated to develop 11% in 2023 and 20% in 2024. Furthermore, the share of 5G smartphones will leap from 61% in 2023 to 83% by 2027. Whereas the smartphone will witness a small 1.4% CAGR from 2022-2027, 5G shipments will show a formidable 11.1% development price for a similar interval.”
About IDC Trackers
IDC Tracker merchandise present correct and well timed market dimension, vendor share, and forecasts for a whole bunch of know-how markets from greater than 100 international locations across the globe. Utilizing proprietary instruments and analysis processes, IDC’s Trackers are up to date on a semiannual, quarterly, and month-to-month foundation. Tracker outcomes are delivered to shoppers in user-friendly Excel deliverables and on-line question instruments.
For extra details about IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Cell Cellphone Tracker, please contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 and jkliem@idc.com.
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About IDC
Worldwide Knowledge Company (IDC) is the premier international supplier of market intelligence, advisory providers, and occasions for the data know-how, telecommunications, and client know-how markets. With greater than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC provides international, regional, and native experience on know-how, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and trade alternatives and tendencies in over 110 international locations. IDC’s evaluation and perception helps IT professionals, enterprise executives, and the funding group to make fact-based know-how selections and to realize their key enterprise aims. Based in 1964, IDC is a completely owned subsidiary of Worldwide Knowledge Group (IDG), the world’s main tech media, knowledge, and advertising and marketing providers firm. To be taught extra about IDC, please go to www.idc.com. Comply with IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Weblog for trade information and insights.
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